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Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Sri Lanka

Authors:

Wasana Aberathna,

Department of Statistics, University of Colombo, Colombo 3,, LK
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Lakshman Alles,

School of Economics and Finance, Curtin University, AU
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W. N. Wickremasinghe ,

Department of Statistics, University of Colombo, Colombo 3,, LK
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Isuru Hewapathirana

Department of Statistics, University of Colombo, Colombo 3,, LK
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop sex-specific mortality estimation models using historical mortality data for Sri Lanka, based on the statistical time series techniques attributed to Lee and Carter (1992). Historical mortality data was analyzed in the light of significant historical episodes. Several alternative univariate time series models were examined for modeling males and females, as well as a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR model when fitted to the first differenced series performed better than the univariate models and hence used for forecasting purposes. From the estimated VAR model, mortality forecasts were generated for the period up to 2030 and life tables were generated for the selected periods of 2006-2008.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4038/sljastats.v15i3.7794

How to Cite: Aberathna, W. et al., (2014). Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan Journal of Applied Statistics. 15(3), pp.141–170. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4038/sljastats.v15i3.7794
Published on 15 Dec 2014.
Peer Reviewed

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